Why are discos so much cheaper than defenders, cruisers, etc?
#1
10-26-2018, 12:52 PM
Why are discos so much cheaper than defenders, cruisers, etc?
Are discos the most undervalued off road vehicles?
why can you buy a well sorted disco ii (with the cdl) for 3-5k when a well sorted defender is over 70k and a well sorted land cruiser is over 20k?
i know all about discos issues, but with in some ways better off road capabilities and obviously nicer interior/options/on road I don’t understand why there is such a huge price gap with the defenders (maybe 2-3x higher price seems reasonable but 25x???).
In comparison vs land cruisers and other more reliable off roaders, the used car markets seem to be overvaluing reliability. So you can pay 20k for a land cruiser and assume nothing will ever go wrong or 3k for a disco ii and assume things will go wrong, but you’ll never end up paying as much even if you spend 3k every year on repairing the disco it would be 6 years of that before breakeven even if the cruiser never had a single problem. Looking at it another way, you could buy a 3k dollar disco ii and put a new Ford power train and still spend way less than buying a land cruiser with 200k miles on it... how does that make sense? Do you agree the discos are just way undervalued as fun/off road vehicles and the other ones overvalued?
why can you buy a well sorted disco ii (with the cdl) for 3-5k when a well sorted defender is over 70k and a well sorted land cruiser is over 20k?
i know all about discos issues, but with in some ways better off road capabilities and obviously nicer interior/options/on road I don’t understand why there is such a huge price gap with the defenders (maybe 2-3x higher price seems reasonable but 25x???).
In comparison vs land cruisers and other more reliable off roaders, the used car markets seem to be overvaluing reliability. So you can pay 20k for a land cruiser and assume nothing will ever go wrong or 3k for a disco ii and assume things will go wrong, but you’ll never end up paying as much even if you spend 3k every year on repairing the disco it would be 6 years of that before breakeven even if the cruiser never had a single problem. Looking at it another way, you could buy a 3k dollar disco ii and put a new Ford power train and still spend way less than buying a land cruiser with 200k miles on it... how does that make sense? Do you agree the discos are just way undervalued as fun/off road vehicles and the other ones overvalued?
#3
10-26-2018, 03:05 PM
Super Moderator
RRC’s were first, followed by D1’s and eventually yes D2’s in clean original condition that run & drive and everything electrical works = will be worth way more than KBB or NADA value. It’ll come down to supply & demand once all the LKQ Scrapyard D2’s are gone.
I’ve seen it happen to plenty of 4x4’s from Gen 1 Mitsubishi Montero’s, RRC, D1, Jeep LJ, yada yada yada. Glad I own 3 beautiful D2 examples (one of them being a 1 of 150 LR Special Vehicles Kalahari).
I’ve seen it happen to plenty of 4x4’s from Gen 1 Mitsubishi Montero’s, RRC, D1, Jeep LJ, yada yada yada. Glad I own 3 beautiful D2 examples (one of them being a 1 of 150 LR Special Vehicles Kalahari).
#4
10-26-2018, 06:46 PM
Camel Trophy
No one wants to get their hands dirty anymore, and LR dealers charge $150/hr, and unless you go to a LR indy everyone else screws them up more than they fix them. In my opinion Toyota and Honda have spoiled the world with their reliability, but the interior does not feel luxury and the actual features are, um, lacking.
#5
10-26-2018, 11:19 PM
It is supply and demand, but sale price is only part of the cost that buyers have to be willing to pay. If the total cost of operating a D2 over 5 years was only a little over the sale price, there would more demand. The market has priced D2's lower on resale because most buyers anticipate high expenses after the purchase.
It's fair to say that a totally-sorted D2 is worth a lot more than blue-book. But to be totally sorted would mean having the long-term problems fixed, and not just being temporarily free of problems. It would need to be rust-free, have an engine completely rebuilt with top-hat liners (not just a replaced head gasket advertised as a rebuilt engine), and it would need to have bushings, springs, shocks, and most of the brake components including the m/c and booster replaced, and the interior, and on and on, and a seller would rightly ask well over $10K for a D2 that's truly sorted like that -- and the demand for the small supply of D2's in that condition is very small. Most prospective D2 buyers are more likely to buy it with problems and hope they get lucky and make it for a few years with only minor projects.
So the Land Cruiser's price reflects most expectations that other than the purchase price, long term expenses will be comparatively much lower than Land Rovers. There's a lot of different kinds of Land Cruisers out there, and they have different values for different reasons. A resto-mod early Land Cruiser can fetch high prices because there's a low supply of them, and late model LC's command high prices because they deliver the value with dependability.
Defenders are mostly high-priced in the US market where the supply is very small. The small supply even increases the demand. It's like an illegal drug or alcohol during prohibition. Anywhere else, the prices would be half what they are in the US. To a certain degree, the very late model Defenders started to become kind of like the Mercedes G-series or a luxury-equipped Humvee. The models so-equipped are obviously appointed way beyond the market for D2's, but a standard, run-of-the-mill 1999 Defender 110 is not a costly vehicle at all in South Africa or Australia, not really any more than a D2.
It's fair to say that a totally-sorted D2 is worth a lot more than blue-book. But to be totally sorted would mean having the long-term problems fixed, and not just being temporarily free of problems. It would need to be rust-free, have an engine completely rebuilt with top-hat liners (not just a replaced head gasket advertised as a rebuilt engine), and it would need to have bushings, springs, shocks, and most of the brake components including the m/c and booster replaced, and the interior, and on and on, and a seller would rightly ask well over $10K for a D2 that's truly sorted like that -- and the demand for the small supply of D2's in that condition is very small. Most prospective D2 buyers are more likely to buy it with problems and hope they get lucky and make it for a few years with only minor projects.
So the Land Cruiser's price reflects most expectations that other than the purchase price, long term expenses will be comparatively much lower than Land Rovers. There's a lot of different kinds of Land Cruisers out there, and they have different values for different reasons. A resto-mod early Land Cruiser can fetch high prices because there's a low supply of them, and late model LC's command high prices because they deliver the value with dependability.
Defenders are mostly high-priced in the US market where the supply is very small. The small supply even increases the demand. It's like an illegal drug or alcohol during prohibition. Anywhere else, the prices would be half what they are in the US. To a certain degree, the very late model Defenders started to become kind of like the Mercedes G-series or a luxury-equipped Humvee. The models so-equipped are obviously appointed way beyond the market for D2's, but a standard, run-of-the-mill 1999 Defender 110 is not a costly vehicle at all in South Africa or Australia, not really any more than a D2.
#6
10-27-2018, 12:05 AM
Recovery Vehicle
A 1999 Disco 2 is almost 20 years old! It's almost 2019.
20 years is probably right around the bottom of the price curve for most vehicles. Actual bottoms may vary a little on timing, but at some point the supply of available junkers dries up. From then on, a vehicle with any cult following or any utility use will stabilize and then begin a long term price rise over the following years, typically.
Disco 2s have both a cult following and utility. Really, the off-road capability of a 2004 Disco 2 with Hill Descent Control, Center Diff Lock, traction control, anti-lock brakes, and full time 4wd is strong.
Discos are one of the few vehicles that look better with a full roof rack on top.
Discos look better lifted.
Discos look better loaded with external gear such as spare fuel can, roof ladder, winch, windshield cables, light protection louvers, and light racks.
Discos look better with off-road tires, high-lift jacks, and shovels mounted.
You can mount Roof Top Tents (RTT) on Discos.
There's just a ton of off-road and camping utility in Discos to appeal to various niche buyers such as campers, mudders, survivalists, fishermen, desert explorers, gold miners/paners, surfers, rock crawlers, hunters, ranchers, etc.
Many a city businessman will see a need for stashing a cheap Disco 2 out on his ranch full time so that when he visits, he can tour his property in style.
In contrast, the Defenders and Land Cruisers (4 Runners too) have already seen their prices run up. If you are buying those for investments then you've missed the sweet spot in the price rise curve.
You've probably still got 4 or 5 years before Disco 2s hit their sweet spot, though. Maybe sooner?
20 years is probably right around the bottom of the price curve for most vehicles. Actual bottoms may vary a little on timing, but at some point the supply of available junkers dries up. From then on, a vehicle with any cult following or any utility use will stabilize and then begin a long term price rise over the following years, typically.
Disco 2s have both a cult following and utility. Really, the off-road capability of a 2004 Disco 2 with Hill Descent Control, Center Diff Lock, traction control, anti-lock brakes, and full time 4wd is strong.
Discos are one of the few vehicles that look better with a full roof rack on top.
Discos look better lifted.
Discos look better loaded with external gear such as spare fuel can, roof ladder, winch, windshield cables, light protection louvers, and light racks.
Discos look better with off-road tires, high-lift jacks, and shovels mounted.
You can mount Roof Top Tents (RTT) on Discos.
There's just a ton of off-road and camping utility in Discos to appeal to various niche buyers such as campers, mudders, survivalists, fishermen, desert explorers, gold miners/paners, surfers, rock crawlers, hunters, ranchers, etc.
Many a city businessman will see a need for stashing a cheap Disco 2 out on his ranch full time so that when he visits, he can tour his property in style.
In contrast, the Defenders and Land Cruisers (4 Runners too) have already seen their prices run up. If you are buying those for investments then you've missed the sweet spot in the price rise curve.
You've probably still got 4 or 5 years before Disco 2s hit their sweet spot, though. Maybe sooner?
Last edited by No Doubt; 10-27-2018 at 12:18 AM.
#10
10-28-2018, 12:28 AM
thats interesting, I guess it didn’t occur to me that way more discos were produced since I see far more cruisers and lxs on the road that discos, owing I assume to all the junked discos. The original supply must be rapidly diminishing tho at the rate I see discos being sold for parts... whereas I don’t see that with cruisers. That plus the fact they are entering the 20-25 year sweet spot suggests to me the disco 2s may be good investments in the next few years if well maintained.